By Rose O. Sherman, EdD, RN, NEA-BC, FAAN
During the last two weeks, the National Council of State Boards of Nursing and NSI Nursing Solutions released new nursing workforce research. While the short-term picture of the nursing workforce has slightly improved from 2021 to 2022, the long-term picture remains quite challenging. The following are five takeaways from these two studies:
1. The gap between the number of nurses needed and the number available continues to grow.
Although the number of RNs in the United States has risen to 4.5 million, the need for RNs continues to grow steadily, and evidence suggests younger nurses are working less. The NCSBN now projects that 20% of currently licensed nurses will leave the workforce (due to retirements, stress, and burnout) by 2027. At the same time, the US Labor Department predicts the number of RN jobs to grow at 6% a year through 2030. The gap between the nurses needed, and those available could be as high as 1 million in the next 5-7 years.
2. Turnover in the first two years of employment remains exceptionally high.
Overall RN turnover declined between 2021 and 2022 by 4.6% and now stands nationally at 22.5%. Turnover in the first two years of employment for RNs is 53%. This has made the return on investment in residency programs challenging for nurse leaders to defend as younger nurses continue to seek travel opportunities.
3. Most hospitals turned over the equivalent of their entire staff in the last five years.
Healthcare is officially moving from an era of core teams with long-tenured employees to a teaming environment with high staff turnover. This talent loss keeps healthcare executives up at night as costs soar and significant clinical and organizational knowledge is lost.
4. Recruitment of experienced RNs is challenging in every specialty.
The average cost of RN turnover today is $52,350. This number is unsurprising, given that the national vacancy rate for RNs is 15.7%. The time to fill a position ranges between 61 and 120 days, depending on the specialty, with an average of 85 days per position – 8 days slower than in 2021. Medical-Surgical nursing positions continue to be the most difficult to fill, with an average recruitment time of 105 days.
5. Mental health and well-being challenges are most pronounced in nurses with less than ten years of experience.
Although mental health and well-being are challenges for all healthcare staff, those with less than ten years of experience report the highest stress levels, burnout, and job fatigue.
These studies reinforce that the current workforce shortages are projected long into the future. The COVID pandemic accelerated trends we would have experienced, albeit over a longer time frame with more time to react. There is a critical need for innovative care delivery redesign. There is no other workable strategy out of our current situation.
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